Where Things Stand After Iowa

1.  No one won any delegates.  The transition into the delegate awarding phase has just begun.

2.  Michelle Bachmann is eliminated. 

3.  Rick Santorum gets to wear the underdog cloak for at least one week.  He must raise money and deploy a field organization fast.  This probably entails putting forth an economic populist message to go along with his social conservatism.

4.  Ron Paul is the protest candidate.  He's against everything the federal government does.  We wait to see whether he fully embraces the role and opts for a third-party candidacy.

5.  Rick Perry either goes home or heads for a last stand in South Carolina.  Depends on the outcome of consultation with his wealthy backers.

6.  Newt Gingrich will definitely make a last stand in South Carolina.  He can hurt other candidacies.  That's what he's good at.

7.  Jon Huntsman's moment, such as it is, has arrived as the media spotlight swings to New Hampshire.  It will be interesting but probably not important to hear what he has to say.

8.  Mitt Romney is expected to win big in New Hampshire.  He remains the only candidate with the resources to win the Republican presidential nomination.  However:

1.  No one won any delegates.  The transition into the delegate awarding phase has just begun.

 

Comments

[Ronda]

I like your list. I will add, as I stated yesterday, I for one feel like a loser - from whom will I be entertained now that MB is out? Sad for us believers in her true ability to amuse.

[Craig]

Michael - check out the lineup of states. The only way it could have been better for Romney was if he won with like 40%. If Perry had surprised and finished Top 3, or Mitt underperformed and slipped to #3 or #4, then that would have been news. But Santorum? No money, not organization, not vetted yet - win, win, win for Romney.

Therefore - everyone making their last stand in South Carolina is good news for Mitt as well - especially if a its a muddled finish with Perry and Santorum at the top in the 20%s - both would have a "win" and would keep going. Check out the lineup of states to follow, Florida (only Mitt wil have $$$ and org), Nevada (Mitt state), Minnesota/Colorado/Maine Caucuses (Romney likely has solid orgs in all three of these states - think Santorum does?)Arizona primary (Mitt state), Michigan primary (definitely Mitt state), Washington Caucus (think Perry or Santorum appeals here?). By the time Super Tuesday rolls around - Mitt will probably have a 7 -8 game winning streak.